Cross-border exchanges and volatility forecasting

We test for the performance of a series of volatility forecasting models (GARCH 1,1; EGARCH 1,1; CGARCH) in the context of several indices from the two oldest cross-border exchanges (Euronext; OMX). Our findings overall indicate that the EGARCH (1,1) model outperforms the other two, both before and after the outbreak of the global financial crisis. Controlling for the presence of feedback traders, the accuracy of the EGARCH (1,1) model is not affected, something further confirmed for both the pre and post crisis periods. Overall, ARCH effects can be found in the Euronext and OMX indices, with our results further indicating the presence of significant positive feedback trading in several of our tests.     

A Polarization Index for Overlapping Groups

The well‐known index of income bipolarization proposed by Wolfson (1994) requires two groups to be split according to the median income and, therefore, to be non‐overlapping. The aim of this paper is to propose a new polarization index in the spirit of the Wolfson index. It allows for any possible partition of the population in two or more (also overlapping) groups. The new index maintains the simplicity and immediate comprehension of the Wolfson index, though being much more flexible. An application is then provided for German and Italian income data.     

城镇群空间结构与要素集聚

依据城镇化发展过程中要素空间集聚理论，展开区域经济发展的空间经济结构研究。通过城市引力、克鲁格曼指数计算，比较分析城镇群内部城市吸引力和城市产业分布的差异性，通过人口与生产空间分布集中度指标和不一致系数的测算，分析了山西省城镇群空间要素集聚效应。研究表明，山西省的城镇群规划与要素空间集聚趋势整体一致，城市间产业分工体系基本形成，城镇群的要素集聚效应明显，但人口与生产分布仍存在不一致性。研究认为，山西省城镇群发展应该继续明确各城市的产业分工和特色，引导劳动力和资本要素的合理流动，实现人口与生产空间分布的一致。     

The Politics of Inequality as Organised Spectacle: Why the Swiss Do Not Want to Tax the Rich

In 2015, Swiss voters had the opportunity to impose a tax on the super rich in a popular vote and thereby fund a redistributive policy. However, a large majority voted against its seemingly obvious self-interest and rejected the tax. We propose an explanation for this puzzling outcome, bridging the usually separate behavioralist and institutionalist perspectives on the politics of inequality. We start from the observation that political economy tends to neglect processes of preference formation. Theorising preferences as socially constructed, we show that interest groups played a major role in shaping the outcome of the vote. Business frames were multiplied through allied parties and the media and had a major impact on individual voting behaviour. In addition, we demonstrate that interest groups representing business interests derive the content of their communication from business’s structurally privileged position in the capitalist economy. Specifically, creating uncertainty about possible perverse effects of government policies on jobs and growth is a powerful tool to undermine popular support. Frames based on this structural power ultimately explain why the Swiss refrained from ‘soaking the rich.’     

The gap not only closes: Resistance and reverse shifts in the digital divide in Russia

The reduction of the digital divide due to the availability of the Internet and the improvement of skills is accompanied by reverse and resistance trends associated with the influence of socio-demographic and economic characteristics of users. In this paper, we estimate the volume and dynamics of the digital divide in access and use of the Internet in Russia by key social groups according to a longitudinal survey for 2008–2018. We found that along with the reducing of the digital divide, its gaps still remain. The greatest polarization is associated with the income, age, and type of residence of the respondents. The most vulnerable social groups on access to ICTs and Internet use are the low-income, the elderly, citizens with disabilities, and those living in rural areas. The reverse shifts in the digital divide were recorded mainly in relation to the Internet usage by age between the middle-age and youth and by gender. In addition, we pointed out the most resistance social groups to reduce the digital divide in the period under review, in particular, by income and type of residence of the respondents. The findings contribute to an understanding of the dynamics and social consequences of the digital divide and can be taken into account in social policy and measures.     

How do the factors determining terrorist groups’ longevity differ from those affecting their success?

This paper distinguishes a terrorist group’s survivability from its success. Terrorist groups succeed if they join the political process or achieve some of their goals. Based on a sample of 470 terrorist groups, we first estimate the determinants of groups’ ending and, conditional on their demise, we identify factors conducive to their success. We find that religious fundamentalist terrorist groups survive longer than left-wing, nationalist/separatist, or right-wing groups; but religious groups are less apt than other ideologies to attain their objectives or to join the political process. Larger groups survive longer and possess a better success prognosis. Within-country group competition is conducive to survival, but harmful to success. Controls include groups’ goals, groups’ strategic choices, and home country’s characteristics. Robustness tests disaggregate our success measure, provide panel estimates, and incorporate other controls.     

Politically connected boards,family and business group affiliations,and cost of capital: Evidence from Indonesia

We investigate the effect of politically connected boards (both supervisory boards [SBs] and boards of directors [BODs]) on cost of debt and equity capital of listed companies in Indonesia which has established a two-tier corporate governance system. The results, based on 250 firms, suggest that companies with politically connected SBs experience lower cost of debt and equity capital, whereas politically connected BODs have no association with cost of either debt or equity. Furthermore, we find that family firms and firms belonging to business groups with politically connected SBs enjoy lower cost of debt and equity capital. Our main results are robust to alternative measures and to tests for endogeneity.     

Accounting and Medicine: An Exploratory Investigation into Physicians’ Attitudes Toward the Use of Standard Cost-Accounting Methods in Medicine

Research studies demonstrate wide variation in how physicians diagnose and treat patients with similar medical conditions and suggest that at least some of the variation reflects inefficiencies and unnecessary medical costs. Health care researchers are actively examining ways to reduce variations in practice through standardization of medicine to reduce the cost of treatment and ensure the quality of outcomes. The most widely accepted form of this standardization is Evidence Based Best Practices (EBBP). Furthermore, financial health care providers such as hospitals and managed care organizations are investigating methods to tie resource usage to medical protocols in their efforts to monitor and control health care costs. Such proposals are contentious because they report on physicians’ medical practice behaviors (such as the number of tests ordered, use of specific therapies, etc.) and such reports could potentially be used to influence their clinical behaviors. The intent of this exploratory study was to examine physicians’ perceptions about linking a standard costing system to EBBP guidelines. The authors interviewed nine practicing physicians asking each physician to respond to the question, ‘As a physician working in a hospital environment, what are your reactions to and concerns with combining standard costing techniques with EBBP?’ The interviews were in-depth and free form in nature. The physicians’ responses were recorded and analyzed using Grounded Theory Methodology. Using this methodology the field data was categorized into two major themes. The most important theme centered on ethics and the second theme was concerned with the implementation and use of a standard cost system in regard to EBBP. If physicians’ worries about ethical dilemmas and implementation issues are not resolved, then it is likely that doctors would be unwilling to participate in any efforts to develop or use a standard cost-reporting system in medicine. While this study was exploratory in nature, it should provide future guidance to accountants, health care researchers and health care providers about physicians’ issues with the use of standard costing methods in medicine.     

Strategic groups in the hospitality industry: Intergroup and intragroup performance differences in Alicante, Spain

The hotel sector is currently immersed in a very uncertain, highly competitive environment, due to which it needs information for the correct management of its establishments. This information can be obtained from the classification of hotels in strategic groups. The present empirical research presents strategic groups in the hospitality industry as a useful tool for the planning and implementation of strategies by hotels that helps to determine their competitive strategies and advantages. This research paper additionally shows how the levels of performance between the hotels belonging to each group can be evaluated from strategic groups. In this study, the tool is applied to the hotel sector of the Spanish province of Alicante, a very important geographical area in the context of international tourism. The dimensions resource commitment and tourist activity scope have been used to define the strategic groups.     

中俄天然气合作博弈分析

中俄两国在能源领域的合作受到全球越来越多的关注，中俄能源合作有着广阔的前景，但目前还存在一些具体的问题，石油管线的修建一波三折，天然气合作仍处在初级阶段。针对两国在天然气合作过程中出现的现象和问题，本文将运用博弈论思想做出具体的分析。